Aurora

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 Nov 06 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 6 (NOAA Scale
G2).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 06-Nov 08 2025 is 7.33 (NOAA Scale
G3).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 06-Nov 08 2025

             Nov 06       Nov 07       Nov 08
00-03UT       5.33 (G1)    7.33 (G3)    4.67 (G1)
03-06UT       5.33 (G1)    6.00 (G2)    4.67 (G1)
06-09UT       5.67 (G2)    5.00 (G1)    4.00     
09-12UT       4.67 (G1)    7.33 (G3)    3.67     
12-15UT       4.33         6.33 (G2)    3.33     
15-18UT       4.00         4.67 (G1)    3.00     
18-21UT       5.67 (G2)    3.67         3.00     
21-00UT       6.67 (G3)    3.33         3.67     

Rationale: G3 (Strong) or greater geomagnetic storms are likely on 06-07
Nov due to multiple enhancements expected from a CH HSS and anticipated
CME arrivals.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 06-Nov 08 2025

              Nov 06  Nov 07  Nov 08
S1 or greater   25%     25%     25%

Rationale: There is a chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux
reaching the S1 (Minor) threshold on 06-08 Nov due to the flare
potential of Region 4274.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R2 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Nov 05 2025 2207 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 06-Nov 08 2025

              Nov 06        Nov 07        Nov 08
R1-R2           70%           70%           70%
R3 or greater   25%           25%           25%

Rationale: Probabilities have increased to 70% for R1-R2
(Minor-Moderate) and 25% for R3 (Strong) due to the continued activity
and complex structure of Region 4274.